“Reaching For the Beaufort Sea”:

The Arctic, Canada, America…and Others.

In a series of statements, US President Donald Trump has claimed that long-standing bilateral agreements establishing the US / Canada border are invalid and has demanded unfettered access to Canadian resources.
Canada is particularly vulnerable in the high Arctic. The United States does not recognize Arctic waters as Canadian territory.
The United States directly challenges Canadian sovereignty over the strategic Northwest Passage, claiming that it is an “international strait.” Navigating the passage shaves 7000 kilometres off maritime transit between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Other countries are also eyeing the Canadian Arctic, both for the shorter maritime transit times and for access to resources and fresh water.
China, in particular, has declared itself a “near-Arctic nation” and is expanding its footprint across the region. Heavy Chinese investment in icebreaker technology gives its navy and Coast Guard the wherewithal to operate freely in Canadian Arctic waters.
Conflict between China and the United States in Canada’s far north is not only plausible but increasingly probable.
While Arctic Sovereignty is a major issue in the upcoming federal election, Canada currently lacks meaningful capacity in the region. Even a multi-billion dollar investment in Arctic defence will take years to operationalize.

“War by Other Means” – Trump Improves (?) on Clausewitz

Even before taking office in January, US President Donald Trump began making regular allusions to his intention to “annex” Canada, along with Panama, Greenland, and even Gaza. While his references to Canada as the “51st State” have become little more than meme-fodder, others are highly specific and seem to be rooted in real intentionality. Trump has repeatedly said that the international border established in 1908 by the US / Canada International Boundary Commission is invalid and needs to be revisited. He has also made repeated references to America’s need to access Canadian resources – not only metals, rare earth minerals, and petroleum, but also Canadian fresh water to replenish American aquifers, dangerously depleted by mismanagement, overuse and, now, climate change.

Canada is probably not facing the threat of a full-out military invasion. Trump himself has regularly stated that while he doesn’t unequivocally rule out military action, he does plan to bring the full weight of American “economic force” to bear on Canada. Economic warfare appears to be the “grand strategy” underlying the current US tariff regime, which Prime Minister Mark Carney has characterized as a “direct attack” on Canada (although, in fairness, it may also be characterized as a whipsawing attack on the rest of the world, as well). However, Canada also has a huge vulnerability that, at this point, can be exploited without major recourse to either military or economic force.

What Makes Water Canadian?

When Canadians look at a map of Canada, they see a vast triangular area of islands (some of which are as big as European countries) and open water stretching up from the Canadian Arctic mainland towards the North Pole. Canadians assume that it is all Canadian territory, and Canadian territorial water. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and successive Canadian foreign policy statements, they are correct.

Many countries, including the United States, don’t see it that way, however. To those countries, the islands may be Canadian, but the rest is international water, well outside the 12-mile-limit and any Canadian claims to an exclusive economic zone. And a look at a map of the northern hemisphere based on a polar projection (below) shows just how much putative international water is up there.

Who “Owns” the Northwest Passage?

The United States has been directly challenging Canadian sovereignty over the Northwest Passage since at least 1969, when a US oil tanker, the SS Manhattan, transited the passage without permission from the government of Canada (although it did require the assistance of Canadian icebreakers to complete its voyage). Since then, the United States has made it clear that it views the passage as an international strait connecting two large bodies of water, in this case Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea.

This disagreement over sovereignty over the Northwest Passage is one of four international territorial disputes in the Arctic. Climate is one of, if not the, critical factor here. In January, the World Meteorological Organization announced that global mean temperatures in 2024 surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and will continue to climb. The Northwest Passage is well on its way to being ice-free for most, if not all, of the year. For the United States, this could mean access to a reliable shipping lane between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans that is 7000 kilometres shorter than transiting the Panama Canal. Just as importantly, it also facilitates access to the abundance of resources in the Canadian Arctic, from minerals to natural gas and petroleum, to the trillions of litres of fresh water flowing out of the Coppermine and Mackenzie River deltas.

Who Else is Up There?

Of course, if the Northwest Passage becomes a true international strait, then, under international law, it will be open to more than just US commercial and military vessels. This could be particularly problematic with regard to other geopolitical actors, like China, which has declared itself a “near-Arctic nation” and is aggressively expanding its presence in region, often in alignment with Russia. Over the past 20 years it opened a polar research station in Svalbard, Norway, a satellite data receiving station in Kiruna, Sweden, and an observatory in Iceland. Two years ago, it partnered with Russia to develop titanium extraction infrastructure on the Barents Sea, including a railroad connecting the region to European Russia. This appears to be a first step in extending China’s “belts and roads initiative” (discussed in previous CIBs) to the Arctic. The Chinese government has also been investing heavily in icebreaker technology, so its Coast Guard and Navy may already have the wherewithal to operate freely in polar waters, including northern Canada.

Who’s Standing On Guard?

The increasing likelihood that the Northwest Passage will soon be an international shipping lane, coupled with the evident importance of the high Arctic and its resources to the United States, may help to explain the apparent US preoccupation with the acquisition of Greenland. With Greenland on the eastern shore of Baffin Bay, and the state of Alaska fronting the Beaufort and the Chukchi Seas, the United States would effectively control access to the Northwest Passage. This would in turn secure de facto American sovereignty over the entirety of the Arctic western hemisphere, directly confronting China and Russia in the process.

Manifest Destiny and Us

The high Arctic as an American lake? As the nativist imperialism that lies at the heart of the American enterprise enjoys a historic resurgence, and the current president dismisses Canadian sovereignty as meaningless, if not entirely contemptible, Canada finds itself in the way of Manifest Destiny. Clearly, our relationship with the United States has changed, and our traditional cooperation in the North may be a thing of the past. As we head towards a historic election at the end of this month, all parties have identified Canada’s Arctic sovereignty as a priority. In Iqaluit, last week, Prime Minister Carney announced several initiatives in this regard, including a $6 billion dollar investment in Over-the Horizon Radar Technology and $420 million to build a meaningful, year-round Canadian Armed Forces presence in the Arctic. But none of this happens overnight and it will require years of infrastructure development and implementation before the first Canadian boots are on the ground. By then, it may all be too late. The Stars and Stripes may be flying over water we assumed was our own, and the United States and China could be fully engaged, literally, in a cold conflict in the high Arctic.

This assessment was prepared using information current to 1200 hrs, 2025/04/09