Mexico: The Death of a Drug Trafficker

“Poor Mexico. So far from God, so close to the United States.”

Porfirio Diaz (1830-1915), 33rd President of Mexico

Violence and unrest will continue throughout Mexico as various actors struggle to fill the leadership vacuum left by the elimination of powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes.
President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is under enormous pressure from the United States to address “narcoterrorism.” This includes threats to deploy US assets in Mexico and allegations that Sheinbaum herself is part of the problem.
Apart from the flow of drugs across the border (which is at least partly a function of American demand), Mexico has assets and resources that the United States wants.
As the so-called “Donroe Doctrine” takes hold, and American policy becomes clearer, US actions vis-à-vis Mexico will serve as indicators of how far it might be prepared to go with Canada, to say nothing of the future of CUSMA.

“El Mencho”

On February 22, Mexican security forces captured Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Mexico’s most notorious drug trafficking group. Oseguera, whose nom-de-guerre was “El Mencho,” reportedly died of his injuries aboard a government aircraft that was taking him to Mexico City. Oseguera’s death provoked a wave of violence, most notably in the popular tourist destination of Puerto Vallarta, on the state of Jalisco’s Pacific coast. CJNG gunmen went on a rampage, setting cars on fire, blocking highways, and shutting down the airport. About 70 people, including at least 25 members of the federal National Guard, died. And as many as 5,000 Canadians were in Puerto Vallarta at the time, “sheltering in place” – sometimes for days – at their homes, hotels, and resorts as the violence raged around them.

CJNG: Bigger Than General Motors?

Initially a component of the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG began to emerge as an independent drug trafficking group in 2009/2010. It is a major global producer and exporter of cocaine and fentanyl, and its reach extends into virtually every Mexican state and down into major drug supply and processing regions, notably Colombia. It is also highly diversified, profiting from extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking, and smuggling and black marketeering in Mexico’s petroleum sector. Its involvement in Mexico’s $3 billion avocado trade extends to investment in scientific research in universities and government institutes.

One of CJNG’s hallmarks is its violence, which is gruesome, even by cartel standards. It regularly takes on other drug trafficking groups, like the Sinaloa Cartel, its closest rival, in protracted and bloody turf battles. It directly confronts the government — including federal security and law enforcement personnel, and the Army - in all its areas of operation, and does not hesitate to compel compliance in “civilian” populations through massacre, torture and “disappearances.” The United States, followed closely by Canada, have designated CJNG, and several other Mexican drug cartels, as terrorist groups.

Sheinbaum’s Choice

Mexicans are exhausted. Over the past two decades, the number of homicides linked to organized crime in Mexico has increased from 3,000 to about 18,000 per year. This is, at least in part, why Mexican president, Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, was elected in 2024: her determination to “take security policy seriously.” This is more than just political rhetoric. A joint recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize for her work in climate science, as mayor of Mexico City Sheinbaum presided over a remarkable reduction in the capital’s crime rate. And since taking office, she has embarked upon a campaign of rooting out corruption and collusion at all levels of government.

But she also faces serious challenges. Organized crime and politics have enjoyed a close relationship in Mexico for more than a century, so Sheinbaum may find herself confronting an entrenched status quo. Even her predecessor and mentor, André López Obrador, was reluctant either to confront cartels directly, or to appear to be taking direction from the United States. For years, rumours circulated about alleged relationships between López and drug trafficking figures. These remain largely untested and may simply be provocations.

How Do You Kill the Hydra?

The killing of Oseguera is a tactical victory for Sheinbaum and her activist policy. But, as the so-called “narco-wars” of the 1980s and 90s against the Medellin and Cali Cartels demonstrated, drug trafficking groups are like the Hydra: when one head is cut off, two more grow to take its place. Oseguera’s death creates a leadership vacuum at the top of a successful and violent criminal organization. As demonstrated by last week’s rampage – not just in Puerto Vallarta, or Jalisco State, but all over the country – the transition of power may prove to be as much as the Mexican security forces can handle. And the CJNG is clearly more than willing to test that hypothesis.

America’s (Not So Subtle) Pressure

Sheinbaum remains under enormous pressure from the United States to clean up Mexico’s “drug problem.” President Trump has often spoken of deploying US troops inside Mexico to “take out” those responsible for smuggling cocaine and fentanyl into the United States and has attributed Sheinbaum’s reluctance to allow this to the fact that “she’s not running Mexico; the cartels are running Mexico.” And shortly after the killing of Oseguera, Elon Musk posted on his X platform that Sheinbaum takes her orders from her “cartel bosses” (Sheinbaum is currently weighing legal action against Musk).

As documented in previous CIBs, the United States used the conflation of drug trafficking groups with terrorist groups, as well as accusations that senior officials are complicit in the drug trade, as the ostensible casus belli for its recent actions in Venezuela. And US-supported and equipped Ecuadorian attacks on drug-related sites in Ecuador that commenced on March 3rd are being characterized as counter-terrorism operations by US Southern Command.

The “Donroe Doctrine” Looms

So, is the United States prepared to transform a rhetorical stance into some sort of action in Mexico? For the time being, the Trump administration’s primary focus is on the Middle East. And a Venezuela-type scenario (to say nothing of what is currently happening in Cuba) would be complicated by the close economic and geographic relationship between America and Mexico. But given the rhetoric of the “Donroe Doctrine” and the continuing US focus on the Latin American drug trade as a foreign terrorist threat of the first order, the United States will push Mexico hard to allow in-country US law enforcement and military action against the cartels.

Drug Wars and What Drives Them

The law of unintended consequences always applies. Thirty five years ago, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) admitted that Operation SNOWCAP, a long term operation aimed at breaking the power of the Medellín and Cali Cartels in Colombia, “…essentially set the Mexicans up in business…” Meanwhile, DEA agents assigned to SNOWCAP “…crossed the line from the commonly accepted role of domestic law enforcement to the role of an infantry combat advisor…jump[ing] out of helicopters, carrying M-16[s]…which the Bolivians call the ‘black sticks of death.”

And even though the Latin American drug trade is raw meat for both Monroe and “Donroe” Doctrine ideologues, it is an enterprise that is sustained by the American (and Canadian) appetite for cocaine. Cocaine use is increasing in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. But at 37% of the total market share, Americans make up the largest cocaine abusing demographic on the planet, right in Mexico’s back yard. An estimated 180 tonnes of the drug make their way into the United States each year. Meanwhile, the “iron river” of up to 730,000 American firearms that are smuggled across the border into Mexico each year accounts for the firepower that allows the cartels to create mayhem, to kill with impunity, and to contemplate taking on the combined might of the Mexican security forces.

Why Is This Important?

Despite being characterized as “isolationist” and “disinterested in regime change,” events over the past weeks and months have demonstrated that the current US administration is anything but. Venezuela was the cautionary tale, from a “pan-American” perspective, and it now appears that Mexico has been put on notice (along with Cuba). “Narcoterrorism” aside, Mexico has resources that America needs and wants. At almost 1.5 billion barrels a day, Mexico is the fourth largest producer of crude oil in the hemisphere. Twenty-five percent of that output is imported – at market prices – by the United States.

The precedent of listing drug trafficking groups as terrorist organizations (with Canada’s apparent concurrence), and illicit drugs themselves as instruments of terror, has now been set. Canada needs to watch Mexico closely, because whatever action the United States is prepared to take there, up to and including the deployment of military and security assets in-country, could be an indicator of how far the United States might be prepared to go with its other neighbour, us. Certainly, last year’s aspirational renaming of the Gulf of Mexico is in keeping with the administration’s recurring “51st State” rhetoric. And the US assessment of Canadian and Mexican compliance in this latest iteration of “the War on Drugs” will affect the future, if not the continued existence, of the CUSMA Agreement.

Drug trafficking flourishes because of state weakness. Whether in 19th century China, postwar Southeast Asia, or modern-day Latin America, the real issue is gaps in the rule of law, or in the state’s ability to enforce the law consistently and in a fair and equitable fashion. By not addressing the problem of drug abuse and addiction at home, and focusing instead on trafficking, we shift the problem offshore. Ultimately, this exacerbates the kinds of problems that give rise to the drug trade in the first place.

We can’t declare war on a problem. It ends up being a war on people. And history demonstrates that when we declare a war on drugs, we cede to police the roles and responsibilities of soldiers. Police are not soldiers, they are civilians, empowered to interact with and protect other civilians. So one of the most worrisome outcomes of the “new” Monroe Doctrine is further militarization of policing, in the region, in the United States and, of course, here in Canada as we scramble to meet US demands around border security.

How far we are from God in this country is debatable. But, like “poor Mexico,” and, of course, Greenland, and despite our “elbows up” rhetoric, our future, even our sovereignty, may ultimately be determined by our proximity to the United States.