Come Fly With Me:

Jamming, Spoofing, and the Threat to Commercial Aviation

  • Canada is not immune to mass casualty attacks on commercial aviation by either state or non-state actors. The 1985 Air India bombing remains the bloodiest terrorist attack in Canadian history.
  • GPS “jamming” and “spoofing” incidents involving commercial aircraft over Europe appear to be attributable to increased Russian interference with commercial aviation.
  • Russia appears to be trying to intimidate Europe, undermine its sense of security, and to test EU and NATO red lines.
  • All commercial aircraft are at risk, including “high value” executive and VIP aircraft.
  • A “targeted” jamming operation that succeeds in bringing down any commercial aircraft will be a political and industry gamechanger.
    Of particular concern is the potential for non-state actors, including terrorist groups, to acquire and deploy jamming and spoofing technology.

Russia, Airplanes, and Europe

On Sunday, August 31, the European Commission claimed that the navigation system of a chartered aircraft carrying Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had been disrupted while attempting to land at the airport in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. According to the Commission, Bulgarian authorities suspected that the disruption – specifically GPS jamming – had been carried out by Russia. The aircraft, which was carrying von der Leyen on a tour of European “front line states,” landed safely although reports also stated that the crew had been forced to resort to “paper charts” in the absence of a GPS signal.

A couple of days later, senior Bulgarian officials stepped back from their original position, denying that there was any evidence of Russian interference with von der Leyen’s aircraft. Shortly after that, Bulgaria effectively retracted its retraction, stating that while Bulgarian ground instruments may not have detected jamming, instruments aboard the aircraft itself may have done so. 

Meanwhile, a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson called the allegations “fake and paranoia.” Nevertheless, von der Leyen is a frequent target of particularly vitriolic Russian propaganda. Senior Russian officials regularly refer to her as an “evil aunt gynecologist” (she is a physician), and as “Führer Ursula,” mainly because of her stalwart support of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and her insistence that the European Union (EU) must stand in a united front against Russian aggression. 

So, Russia might have deployed GPS jamming against von der Leyen’s flight simply to demonstrate that it could. And Bulgaria might have flip flopped because of some back-channel pressure from Russia, with which – as an Orthodox, Slavic nation strategically abutting both Turkey and the Black Sea – it has a long and fraught relationship.

Jamming and Spoofing: What Is It?

Jamming operations take two forms. Straight up GPS jamming involves the use of radio signals to disrupt the signals sent by GPS positioning satellites. Some pilots compare it to what happens when you drive your car into a tunnel and the radio cuts out, only at 35,000 feet. Anybody who uses a cell phone knows that GPS signals can sometimes be lost temporarily, whether through equipment malfunction or natural phenomena. Spoofing, which is another Russian tactic, replaces real GPS signals with fakes that make an aircraft (or ship, or any other vehicle that uses GPS for navigation or positioning) appear to be somewhere it is not. This can “trick” automatic piloting and navigation systems, and even human operators, into veer off course. Clearly, this has the potential for what some pilots call “dramatic consequences.” 

Not So Friendly Skies

Whatever actually happened aboard von der Leyen’s aircraft, it appears to be part of a disturbing increase in Russian interference with aviation in European airspace. A couple of days after the incident in Bulgaria, a joint report by Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland was discussed in European media. The report alleged that Russian disruption of GPS and other aircraft satellite systems affected 122,600 flights over the Baltic region during the first four months of 2025. Depending on where they occurred, disruptions affected anywhere between 27.4% to 42% of total aircraft in flight. These are significant increases over 2024, and the Swedish Transport Agency has stated that the number of incidents continues to rise. 

Testing the Limits?

The report also traced most of the interference over the Baltic back to Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, Smolensk, and Rostov, all locations of important Russian military bases. Certainly, commercial pilots regularly report jamming and spoofing adjacent to conflict zones in the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine. But the both the European Union and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) have noted what can be characterized as deliberate action by Russia to intimidate Europe and to undermine the safety and security of European infrastructure. 

Russia may not yet be prepared to confront either NATO or the EU directly, but by threatening, or even appearing to threaten European commercial aviation, Russia can create uncertainty, instil fear, and test Europe’s resolve to continue its support for Ukraine. Indeed, this seems to be an important component of Russian “grand strategy.” Chatham House characterized the Russian drone incursion over Poland on the night of 9/10 September as an attempt to “test where NATO’s red lines are.” A continuing series of incursions into NATO airspace by Russian military aircraft through September would seem to confirm this, as well as suggesting that Russia intends to keep up the pressure into the foreseeable future.  

Why Is This Important?

As above, failures and “glitches” in aircraft systems are not uncommon occurrences. Backups exist and, at the end of the day, commercial pilots have the training and experience to fly their aircraft in most conditions, including (as was apparently the case aboard von der Leyen’s flight), the use of paper navigation charts.

…Because Jamming and Spoofing Can Kill People

Nevertheless, GPS jamming and spoofing real potential threats to commercial aviation. They can cause aircraft to fly off course, to follow incorrect routes, to fly into dangerous or restricted airspace, or even end in what aviators euphemistically refer to as “controlled flight into terrain.” All of this this is particularly problematic in busy airspace, or in airspace that is close or adjacent to combat zones, where even a few seconds of inattention or distraction can be catastrophic.

…Because There Are More Commercial and High Value Flights in the Air Than Ever

All commercial aircraft are vulnerable, including business and executive aircraft. Globally, the business aviation sector is growing, particularly in the Americas and in Europe, as executives and senior officials seek options that scheduled commercial carriers can or will not provide. This means that increasing numbers of small, executive aircraft are in the air at any given time and that the VIPs aboard are vulnerable. 

As above, whether Ursula van der Leyen – a “high value target” in anyone’s estimation – and her aircraft were deliberately targeted remains unknown, although the circumstances make it highly plausible. The very plausibility of targeted jamming or spoofing attacks against specific aircraft and their occupants presents a whole new level of threat and risk, particularly to “high value” aviation and its passengers.

…Because Terrorists Understand What Makes People Afraid

Terrorist groups have a keen understanding of the degree to which fear of flying is rooted in the human psyche. This is why terrorist operations targeting commercial aircraft – from the Cuba hijackings of the 1960s, to the PLO, PFLP and Hezbollah hijackings of the 1970s, to 9/11 – evoke so much horror in the public imagination. Canada is not immune. The Air India bombing of 1985 remains the bloodiest terrorist attack in Canadian history and, until 9/11, the world’s deadliest act of aviation terrorism. And while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ downing of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 as it departed Tehran in 2020 was characterized by then Prime Minister Trudeau as “recklessness, incompetence, and wanton disregard for human life,” rather than terrorism,  85 Canadian citizens and permanent residents were killed.    

Terrorism metastasizes. A bomb brought down Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1985, killing all 259 souls aboard, and 11 more on the ground. But it is increasingly clear that cheaper and much simpler cyber tactics now define the “art of the possible” for both terrorism and asymmetric warfare. If a non–state actor can acquire, deploy and successfully use jamming or spoofing equipment to bring down even one commercial aircraft, the ensuing panic will be a game-changer, not only for terrorism, but for the international aviation industry as well.

…And Because of History

Jamming and spoofing are part of a larger pattern of historical Russian targeting of civilian aircraft. Notable incidents include the downing of a Korean Airlines passenger jet over Sakhalin Island by the then Soviet Air Force in 1983; the 2014 destruction of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 with a SAM missile launched by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine; and the crash of an Azerbaijani airliner, struck by Russian air defense and electronic warfare systems as it attempted to land in Kazakhstan in December 2024. So, any escalation in the threat to commercial or private aviation emanating from Russia needs to be taken extremely seriously.

This assessment was completed using information current as of 1200 EDT, 25-10-04.